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Agri-Food Trade Shock Transmission in ASEAN: Macroeconomic Impact from Output and Price Shocks

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  • Agri-Food Trade Shock Transmission in ASEAN: Macroeconomic Impact from Output and Price Shocks

​Dear UM Community,

Greetings from Tun Ismail Ali Chair (TIAC)!

TIAC cordially invites you to join us in the JESG-TIAC Seminar

Date: 22nd September 2022 (Thursday)
Time: 2.00pm - 3.00pm
Zoom: https://zoom.us/j/93750903961

Meeting ID: 937 5090 3961

For more information, please do not hesitate to contact us at tiac@um.edu.my.

Thank you! See you there!

Abstract

This paper examines the diffusion of external (output and price) shocks to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) through the agri-food trade channel for the 1990Q1 to 2020Q4 period. For that purpose, the study develops a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model to simulate the economic resilience (output, inflation, interest rate and exchange rate) of the region from various types of external shocks. We find that the agri-food channel is relevant in the shock propagation to ASEAN. There are more pronounced output effects on ASEAN from global output shocks relative to regional output shocks. ASEAN is also more vulnerable to oil price shocks relative to raw material price shocks. The macroeconomic responses of ASEAN to price shocks are however not uniform due to the different consumption intensities of oil and raw materials, with negative and positive output effects from oil price shocks and raw material price shocks respectively. The findings suggest that ASEAN needs to address its macroeconomic vulnerabilities to absorb global output shocks and oil price shocks, so that it can recover rapidly and sustainably, when they do occur. 

Dr. Mala Raghavan

Dr. Mala Raghavan is Lecturer of Economics at the Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania, an associate with the Asia Institute of Tasmania and a Visiting Research Fellow to Bank Negara, Malaysian Central Bank. Her research interests are in the areas of Macroeconomic Policies, Monetary Economics, International Economics and Asian Economies.

Dr. Mala has more than 25 years of teaching experience at undergraduate and postgraduate levels at various universities across two continents – Australia and Asia (Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong). She joined University of Tasmania in July 2011. Prior to that she held academic positions at Monash University and RMIT University. She has also worked as Research Executive in Market Research Consultancies in Malaysia and Singapore.

Presentation Material 

Recordings: Youtube Video (Unlisted)